It looks like Elon's rather bloated concept for a lunar mission is running into the laws of physics like a Cybertruck using full self driving.
NASA does not have, nor want, nuclear weapons. But when it comes to a particular metric that is part of the Artemis Program to land people on the Moon, NASA guards a particular number like it is trying to prevent outsiders from cracking nuclear codes.
I am speaking of the number of Starship launches required to fuel a Starship-based lunar lander in low-Earth orbit such that it can fly out to the Moon, land there, and return to lunar orbit.
………
On Thursday, the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly meeting, during which panel member Charlie Precourt (a former NASA astronaut) spoke about risks associated with the Artemis Program and landing humans on the Moon.
“With respect to Artemis IV, however, we’ve got a large number of firsts that reduce the likelihood of mission success,” Precourt said. “We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander. I think the last estimate is around 22 flights.”
Precourt did not name Starship, but he could only be referring to the SpaceX vehicle. NASA’s other lunar lander for human missions, Blue Origin’s Blue Moon, will not be using orbital refueling as part of its initial mission design. The safety panel almost certainly would have obtained this estimated number of refuelings, 22, from discussions with NASA officials as part of its deliberations during quarterly meetings.
After I posted Precourt’s estimate on social media site X, SpaceX founder Elon Musk replied that NASA’s safety panel estimate was not accurate. “That’s way too high,” Musk said. “Actual number will be more like 6 to 8.”
6 to 8 is too many, but I would be willing to bet that 22 is closer to reality.
Musk's landing module weighs north of 100 tons, and the whole thing returns to lunar orbit.
This contrasts with the Apollo LM which on descent weighted 16 tons, and the separate ascent module weighted less than 2 tons.
This is what happens when engineering choices are made by someone who gets their technical ideas from Tom Swift children's books.
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