A Foreseeable Consequence

As a result of the US attack on them, Iran is charting a more aggressive and active path in foreign relations, because they have concluded that the US is spent.

The Iran war hawks got their war, and they lost.

Iran has grown more confident in its ability to attack targets in the Middle East and appears determined to continue the conflict for months to frustrate the United States, according to U.S. intelligence reports in recent weeks.

In many respects, the assessments reflect what has been observable on the ground as fighting erupted again after a period of relative calm. In the past week, Iran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz and American troops in the region, and U.S. forces struck inside Iran, killing military personnel and civilians.

The new exchanges have been limited so far. But the intelligence reports, according to people who have read them, suggest that Iran’s hard-line government might be contemplating a significant escalation.

Iran has emerged from months of the on-again, off-again war with a far better understanding of its military strengths and is more sure of its capabilities, according to officials briefed on the intelligence.

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In the coming weeks, Iran could take actions akin to what it did in July, according to U.S. officials. At that time, Iran attacked American military bases in the Middle East, killing three Americans in Jordan; struck shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; and struck infrastructure in Kuwait and elsewhere.

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There are signs that Iran-linked hackers may have regrouped in recent months after sustaining some losses at the start of the war, according to current and former U.S. officials.

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Iran’s leadership also appears to have a more precise understanding of how to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz, which carried one-fifth of the world’s oil before the war.

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Others briefed on the reports said Iran probably believes that the U.S. military will be hard pressed to mount major new strikes as its munitions stockpiles dwindle.

Every other nation on earth concerned about being on the United States' "Naughty List" is taking notes right now.