114%

That is how overpriced the SpaceX IPO is according to a Morningstar analysis reported by that Commie rag the Financial Times. (They ain't called th, Pink Paper," for nothing.)

My guess is that even an analysis stating that IPO is overvalued by 114% will be shown by reality to be over optimistic.

………

Their headline findings are:

• The stock’s probably worth $63 per share, a 53 per cent discount to the $135 issue price.
• SpaceX probably has an addressable market of about $129bn, rather than the $1.6tn claimed in its S-1 filing.
• In a (metaphorical) moonshot scenario, where SpaceX pioneers orbital data centres and captures 20 per cent of AI computing capacity by 2040, the company would be worth $1.97tn, or $154 per share.
• Morningstar assigns only a 7 per cent per cent chance of the moonshot scenario happening.
• For Starlink, Morningstar estimates the global market to be worth about $129bn, which is rather less SpaceX’s estimate of $1.6tn. “[T]echnical constraints and unit economics limit the business primarily to lower-density markets,” it says.
• Here’s a link to the full note on SpaceX valuation, and here’s its note on Starlink market sizing. Space cadets and attached bankers, do please tell us in the comments what Morningstar gets wrong.

Look out below.