So this week, initial claims rose more than expected, and continuing claims fell more than expected.
I have no f%$#ing clue what this all means, but inflation appears to spiking as well, which strongly implies that we won't see any more rate cuts from the Fed.
New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, showing no signs of labor market deterioration and potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged as it monitors the economic fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Monthly inflation rose by the most in 12 months in February and economic growth almost braked in the fourth quarter, other data showed on Thursday. Economists expect that price pressures increased further in March as the war drove up the cost of energy and other products.
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Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 for the week ended April 4, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 210,000 claims for the latest week. Low layoffs are anchoring the labor market. A surge in global oil prices has sent the national average gasoline retail price soaring above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years and wiped $3.2 trillion from the stock market in March.
Economists are bracing for a jump in inflation in March, with the Consumer Price Index expected to increase about 1.0% on a monthly basis, translating to a year-on-year rise of about 3.3%. The government will release the CPI report for March on Friday. Inflation already was elevated before the war, largely because of Trump's broad import duties.
A separate report from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased 0.4% in February, the largest increase since February 2025, after gaining 0.3% in the prior month. The increase, which was in line with economists' expectations, reflected strong rises in the prices of recreational goods and vehicles as well as clothing and footwear.
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Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE Price Index increased 0.4% in February for a second straight month. In the 12 months through February, so-called core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% following a 3.1% increase in January. The slowdown in year-on-year core PCE inflation reflected last year's high readings dropping out of the calculation.
The U.S. central bank tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target.
Economists say monthly PCE inflation needs to increase 0.2% for a sustained period to bring inflation back to target. The release on Wednesday of the minutes of the Fed's March 17-18 policy meeting showed a growing group of policymakers felt last month that rate hikes might be needed to counter inflation.
The central bank left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The odds of a rate cut this year have greatly diminished.
I am not sure what is going on, but it ain't good.
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