19 February 2026

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And we have the latest unemployment numbers.

Initial claims fell sharply, but continuing claims continue to rise.

I find the latter number more significant than the latter.

Applications for US unemployment benefits fell by the most since November, adding to evidence of stabilization in the labor market.

Initial claims decreased by 23,000 to 206,000 in the week ended Feb. 14, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That was lower than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

In the past year, new applications have fallen below the 210,000 mark only a handful of times. That level of weekly filings is a sign that layoffs widely remain low. The data also suggest that people who were temporarily unable to work due to a severe winter storm that spanned the country in late January have returned to their jobs.

However, continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, rose to 1.87 million in the previous week, the highest since early January. 

………

Separate data out Thursday showed the US trade deficit widened in December, capping a year marked by erratic tariff policy. 

 I think that we are already in a recession, and that it will get much worse, but what the hell do I know.

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