07 January 2026

Gee, What a Surprise


Nothing to see here, move along.
Polymarket, the gamble on anything in their casino futures market company, has announced that it will not pay out on the bets regarding the attack on Venezuela.

I'd rather they just out whoever it was in the Trump administration who made the bet in the first place. 

Polymarket is disputing that the mission to capture Nicolás Maduro constituted an invasion and said it will only settle a prediction contract if the US military takes control of Venezuelan territory.

The decision by the prediction market has angered gamblers and added to the controversy surrounding a successful wager on the timing of Maduro’s capture that netted more than $400,000 in winnings for a mystery trader. The dispute over the definition of “invade” highlights just one of the controversies faced by the mostly unregulated industry.

Polymarket — which only recently gained regulatory approval to operate legally in the US — says on its website that it will resolve the “Will the US invade Venezuela by . . .?” contract if the US “commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela” by one of three dates. 


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