16 December 2025

Well,We Now Have the Data

We have the 2 months of jobs data that the government shutdown prevented, and it's kind of grim, 105,000 jobs lost in October and just 64,000 jobs added in November.

In case you are wondering the 64,000 new jobs in November is not enough to account for natural workforce growth.

Grim news: 

The US labor market grew by more than expected last month, recovering some of the damage inflicted by the federal government shutdown, according to official data.

An estimated 105,000 jobs were lost in October, and 64,000 were added in November, a highly-anticipated report showed on Tuesday.

Jobs growth was higher in November than anticipated by many economists, with a consensus forecast of some 40,000 jobs added.

But the headline unemployment rate continued to climb – and hit 4.6%, a four-year high, last month – amid apprehension around the strength of the US economy.

Previous estimates for overall jobs growth in August and September were also downgraded, from a drop of 4,000 to 26,000, and from growth of 119,000 to 108,000, respectively.

The latest jobs numbers, typically released monthly, were delayed due to the government shutdown. Federal government jobs declined by 162,000 in October, and 6,000 in November.

………

There are signs that the US’s job market is weakening. ADP reported US private sector employers shed about 32,000 jobs in November after adding 47,000 jobs in October. 

It feels like a recession because we are in a recession, and if con-men were not setting billions of dollars on fire in the AI frenzy, the GDP numbers would show that too.

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