Still No Official Economic Data, But

We had a brutal layoff report from Challenger, Gray, & Christmas:

On Thursday morning, a private consulting group said that employers announced a surge in October layoffs and more than a million job cuts so far this year—big numbers that seemed to raise fresh alarm about the state of the labor market.

A few hours later, Bank of America offered a slightly better picture: The job market continues to slow, but hadn’t changed substantially from an already rocky September.

“It’s cooling, but not collapsing,” said David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute, regarding the labor market.

The two reports—along with other new private-sector takes on slow hiring—offer clues on a shaky U.S. labor market that has become more opaque at a perilous time. The federal government shutdown means the U.S. hasn’t reported official jobs or unemployment data since the shutdown started Oct. 1.

Since then, major companies have announced thousands of white-collar layoffs, raising concerns about the growing impact of artificial intelligence and companies’ willingness to make do with fewer workers.

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Consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas issued a bleak report: It said that U.S. companies’ job-cut announcements nearly tripled to 153,074 in October from 54,064 in September, with companies citing cost-cutting and artificial intelligence.

This means American employers have now announced 1,099,500 job cuts so far this year, up 65% from the first 10 months last year, the consulting firm said. This is the highest figure for year-to-date announcements since 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic caused nearly twice as many layoffs, Challenger said.

The firm produces its estimates by tracking planned job cuts through news reports, company filings and announcements, annual reports, and mandated layoff and closure notices companies make state by state. Layoffs announced in a given month might not lead to people leaving jobs right away, making it unclear whether official labor data will show similar trends.

The Bank of America Institute’s latest report, pegged to analysis of customer-deposit data analysis, didn’t indicate the labor market had changed significantly since an already rocky September. But over a longer span, the bank said it has seen a clear deceleration from the spring and early summer. 

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Meantime, Revelio Labs—which uses figures from networking platforms to get readings on measures including employment, salaries, hiring and attrition—estimated the U.S. economy lost 9,100 jobs in October. This was largely because of cuts in the government sector, though the retail and manufacturing sectors—among others—cut jobs, Revelio said.

This adds to an unsettled picture on hiring: On Wednesday, payroll processor ADP reported that the U.S. added 42,000 private-sector jobs last month, a rebound after two straight months of declines. Unlike Revelio, ADP excludes government payrolls and only focuses on the private sector.

 And then we have cratering consumer confidence:

Consumers’ moods dropped further in November, according to a monthly survey from the University of Michigan, continuing a slide that has worsened amid persistent price increases and an extended government shutdown.

The Michigan survey’s headline index fell to 50.3 in November, from 53.6 last month, based on preliminary November responses. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting a milder decline in the index, to 53.

The reading is now just slightly above the levels that sentiment sank to amid the historic inflation that hit in 2022 during the Covid-19 pandemic, making it among the lowest results recorded in the survey’s decades of history.

We are f%$#ed.