It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Initial Claims


Continuing Claims Initial unemployment claims rose last week, rising by 11,000 to 235,000, with  with continuing claims rising 30K to 1.972 million, a 3½ year high.

Continuing claims have been trending upwards, but I am no longer a part of this statistic, which makes me a happy camper.

I think that we are already in a recession. I think that we have been for a while.

The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits rose by the most in about three months last week and the number of people collecting unemployment relief in the prior week climbed to the highest level in nearly four years, signaling recent labor market softness continued into August.

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Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 11,000 - the largest increase since late May - to a seasonally adjusted 235,000 for the week ended August 16, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week.

The data covered the survey week for the August nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and while it does not yet suggest large-scale layoffs are afoot, it nonetheless points to another month of sub-par job growth.

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The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, rose 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.972 million, the highest level since November 2021, during the week ending August 9, the claims report showed. 

I wonder what the Federal Reserve will do.  

My guess is that they will hold rates steady, by YMMV.