12 June 2025

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Initial Claims and Separations
Continuing Claims and 4-Week Moving Average 

Not good news.

Initial claims were unchanged, and remain at an 8-month high, while continuing claims hit a 3½ year high and the 4-week moving average hit a 2 year high.

Recurring applications for US unemployment benefits rose to the highest since the end of 2021, adding to evidence that it is taking unemployed Americans longer to find a new job.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, advanced to 1.96 million in the week ended May 31, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That was above all estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Meanwhile, a measure of new filings that smooths volatility climbed to the highest since August 2023. 

The spike in recurring claims coincides with a slowdown in hiring, suggesting that out-of-work people are struggling to find employment. However, the report covers periods that included Memorial Day and the start of summer school breaks in some states, which tends to make the data more volatile. 

At least the inflation numbers are good for now:

………

In a separate report Thursday, US producer price inflation remained muted in May across the board, another sign that higher levies have yet to result in higher prices for consumers and businesses. Treasury yields and the dollar fell after the economic data. 

Not good. 

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