It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Initial Claims and Labor Turnover


Continuing claims and confidence


And Real EstateMaybe more like Thursday, "Dafuq?"

I'm beginning to wonder if the DOGE boys are messing the the Department of Labor data to create a false sense of prosperity, because it makes no sense that initial unemployment claims fell to a 2 month low.

Everything seems to have been freezing up in response to the Trump Mishugas.

I would note that continuing claims have continued their slow climb.

Maybe no one is hiring or laying off right now:

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a two-month low last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable in April, though uncertainty around tariffs is making businesses hesitant to boost hiring.

President Donald Trump's import duties are squeezing the housing market, with other data on Thursday showing single-family housing starts plunging to an eight-month low in March, which underscored economists' expectations that economic growth likely ground to a halt in the first quarter. 

………

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ended April 12, the lowest level since February, the Labor Department said.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. There are still no signs mass firings of federal government workers have significantly impacted the labor market.

Dunno what is going on, but I do know that things are f%$#ed up and sh%$.

………

Claims declined during the March and April survey weeks, suggesting a steady pace of job gains this month. The economy added 228,000 jobs in March while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in February.

Next week's data on the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, could shed more light on the labor market's fortunes in April.

The so-called continuing claims increased 41,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.885 million during the week ending April 5, the claims report showed, indicating some laid-off workers were finding it difficult to land new opportunities.

Yeah, some workers, like, you know, me.  f%$#

………

A third report from the Commerce Department's Census Bureau showed single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 14.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 940,000 units in March, the lowest level since July.

They decreased 9.7% year-on-year. Weak homebuilding added to economists' expectations that gross domestic product growth slowed to below a 0.5% annualized rate in the first quarter, with greater odds for a contraction.

A surge in imports as businesses front-loaded goods to avoid tariffs accounts for some of the anticipated stall in growth. The economy grew at a 2.4% pace in the fourth quarter.

………

Overall housing starts tumbled 11.4% to a rate of 1.324 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts falling to a rate of 1.420 million units.

Multi-family building permits jumped 10.1% to a rate of 445,000 units. That lifted overall building permits by 1.6% to a pace of 1.482 million units last month.

Yeah, a new prosperity.  And eggs are cheap now too ……… NOT! 

Whatever the f%$# is going on here, it ain't good.