It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Federal Workers Unemployment Filings


Note the spike in planned layoffsInterestingly enough, initial unemployment claims actually fell more than forecast, falling by 21,000 to 221,000 as versus a forecast of 235,000.

Meanwhile, continuing claims rose by 42 K to a seasonally adjusted 1.897 million, and total planned layoffs in the federal government in 2025 is now 1,000 times what it was at this point last year. (No, I am not misplacing a decimal point.)

I don't know what the February job report will look like, we'll find out tomorrow, but March is going to be a blood bath:

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, suggesting that the labor market remained stable in February, though turbulence lies ahead from tariffs on imports and deep government spending cuts.

That was flagged by other data on Thursday showing layoffs announced by U.S.-based employers jumped in February to levels not seen since the last two recessions amid mass federal government job cuts, canceled contracts and fears of trade wars. 

………

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended March 1, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 235,000 claims for the latest week.

The decline reversed the prior week's surge, which had lifted claims to a two-month high and was blamed on snowstorms and difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations around the Presidents Day holiday.

A separate unemployment compensation for federal employees (UCFE) program, which is reported with a one-week lag, showed applications rising to a four-year high of 1,634 from only 614 during the week ending February 15. 

………

Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said it had tracked 62,242 announced job cuts by the federal government from 17 different agencies in February. Most of the layoffs have been in Washington D.C., which has lost 61,795 jobs so far this year compared to only 60 in 2024.

Contractors have also been caught in the DOGE crossfire, extending the job losses to the private sector.
Challenger said the "DOGE impact" was blamed for 63,583 of the announced 172,017 layoffs last month.

………

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, advanced 42,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.897 million during the week ending February 22, the claims report showed.

We are f%$#ed. 

The only question is whether we see it this Friday, or on April 4.