27 February 2025

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ or ╭∩╮(︶︿︶)╭∩╮ Who Knows?

It's just one week, but initial unemployment claims jumped 9%, by 220,000 to 242,000 which is clearly not good.

Continuing claims actually fell slightly, by  5,000 to 1.862 million, though it should be noted that continuing claims are delayed by a week.

It could be a blip, but I am inclined to believe that it is not because, consumer confidence took its biggest hit in 4 years falling by 7 points to hit 98.3.

That's the 3rd straight drop, and the biggest drop in consumer confidence in 3½ years.

That's why I'm betting on the downside, because consumer confidence is down, and we can expect to see something near to 1 million federal employees lose their jobs in the next few weeks as President Musk continues his rampage.

Not good.

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