07 February 2025

First Friday of the Month ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

So, we have the monthly unemployment numbers out, and they are not great

They are not awful, but it looks to me to be basically treading water:

The U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate edged down to 4%, showing cooling but still solid gains for the labor market, the Labor Department said Friday.

The gain in jobs marked a drop from November and December and was less than the 169,000 jobs economists had expected for January, according to a Wall Street Journal survey. But the job counts for November and December were revised upward by a combined 100,000.

The unemployment rate was below the 4.1% that had been expected.
………
Sectors including healthcare and retail added jobs. Employment declined in mining and oil and gas extraction.

Gee, what happened to, "Drill Baby, Drill!"

In related news, rather than rising, as economists forecast, consumer sentiment fell in January

My guess is that President Musk's behavior is making people nervous:

The Trump bump in consumer confidence is already over. 

Tariff threats, stock market swings and rapidly reversing executive ordersare causing Americans across the political spectrum to feel considerably more pessimistic about the economy than they did before President Trump took office.

Consumer sentiment fell about 5% in the University of Michigan’s preliminary February survey of consumers to its lowest reading since July 2024. Expectations of inflation in the year ahead jumped from 3.3% in January to 4.3%, the second month in a row of large increases and highest reading since November 2023. 

“It’s very rare to see a full percentage point jump in inflation expectations,” said Joanne Hsu, who oversees the survey. Republicans have come off a postelection surge in confidence, she said, and Democrats and Independents also seem to believe that economic conditions have deteriorated since last month. 

Morning Consult’s recent index of consumer confidence, too, fell between Jan. 25 and Feb. 3, driven primarily by concern over the country’s economic future. 

………

Immediately after Trump’s November victory, consumer confidence surged, a move largely driven by new optimism among Republicans. The sentiment stayed elevated throughout the run-up to the inauguration. 

Lawlessness, incompetence, and arrogance are a toxic mix.

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