It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ On Wednesday

Because of commemorations of the death of Jimmy Carter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released unemployment claims data a day early, with initial claims falling by 10,000 to 201,000 beating the consensus estimate of 218,000, with continuing claims rising by 33K to 1.867 million, with ADP releasing a report showing an increase in the private labor force of 122,000.  (On the last one, I'd wait for the official report in 2 days)

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to an 11-month low last week, pointing to a stable labor market, though a slowdown in hiring has led some laid-off workers to experience long bouts of joblessness.

Signs of a steadily cooling labor market could allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in January against the backdrop of still high inflation.

OMG!  Inflation is 2.6%, not 2.0%!  Panic!!!!

Mores sado-monetarism.

………

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 201,000 for the week ended Jan. 4, the lowest level since February 2024, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 218,000 claims for the latest week.

The report was published a day early as federal government offices are closed on Thursday in honor of former President Jimmy Carter who died on Dec. 29 at the age of 100.

………

Labor market stability was underscored by government data on Tuesday showing an increase in job openings in November, with 1.13 vacancies for every unemployed person, up from 1.12 in October. Uncertainty over the impact of proposed policies from President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration is also seen causing the Fed to pause rate cuts this month.

………

While layoffs have remained low by historical standards, hiring has slowed, with the ADP National Employment on Wednesday showing private payrolls increased by 122,000 jobs in December after rising 146,000 in November. Economists had forecast private employment rising by 140,000.

I think that we are now in a downturn, if not a full recession.

Layoffs are not ramping up yet, but it appears that hiring is slowing.