It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Unemployment and layoffs


Economic indicatorsInitial unemployment claims rose by 6,000 by 250,000 last week, with continuing claims falling by 1,000 to 1.826 million.

So not a big change, and the Purchasing Manager Index seems to be generally positive.

So it looks like for the next month or so, we won't see any big moves in the economy:

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased marginally last week, but the devastation unleashed by Hurricane Helene in the U.S. Southeast and strikes at Boeing and ports could distort the labor market picture in the near-term.

The report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed the labor market gliding at the end of the third quarter, a state of affairs that could allow the Federal Reserve to be in no rush to deliver large interest rate cuts. The economy also ended the third quarter on solid footing, with another report showing services sector activity rose to the highest level in just over 1-1/2 years in September amid strong growth in new orders.

"For the moment, the labor market looks steady as a rock and the economy appears to have missed falling headlong over the cliff into the depths of recession," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "Fed officials are unlikely to hurry ahead with aggressive interest rate cuts unless the labor market deteriorates further."

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 6,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended Sept. 28. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 220,000 claims for the latest week.

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The economy appears to have retained most of its strength from the second quarter. The Institute for Supply Management said in a separate report on Thursday that its non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) jumped to 54.9 last month, the highest level since February 2023, from 51.5 in August.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. While services sector employers are holding back on hiring, workers are also scarce in some industries. The ISM noted that responses from businesses in the survey last month included "employees leaving, and it's tough to find new ones."

I'm not sure what this all means, and trying to make predictions about the economy is a path to madness.

And not the good kind of madness.  I mean the kind of madness that makes you gibber, Tekeli Li!"

¯\_(ツ)_/¯