09 November 2023

It's Thursday, So Jobless Numbers

So, initial claims fell slightly and continuing claims rose to the highest level since April last week, while the less volatile 4-week moving average of initial claims rose.

The Federal Reserve is getting the recession that it so desperately wants.

Recurring applications for US unemployment benefits rose for a seventh straight week, adding to evidence that the labor market is cooling.

Continuing jobless claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, increased to 1.83 million in the week ended Oct. 28, the highest since mid-April, according to Labor Department data out Thursday.

Initial claims ticked lower to 217,000 in the week ending Nov. 4. The four-week moving average, which smooths out some of the volatility in the weekly data, rose to 212,250.


The recent pickup in continuing claims suggests unemployed workers are increasingly having a harder time finding new jobs. Demand for workers is retreating from unprecedented pandemic levels and the unemployment rate now stands at the highest level in nearly two years.


On an unadjusted basis, initial claims rose to 213,132. Filings increased the most in California and New York, and fell in Oregon. Unadjusted continuing claims for the latest reporting week saw the biggest increases in California, Michigan and Washington. 

I think that the unadjusted number is more important, because the adjustments have not reflected the loss of something like a million workers from the non-farm payrolls from death and long Covid disability.

I expect these numbers to get a lot worse over the next few months.


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