21 September 2023

I Have No F%$#Ing Clue What Is Going On

Initial unemployment claims fell to 201,000,  much better than the 225,000 forecast, while the 4 week moving average and continuing claims fell as well.

Applications for US unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since January last week, indicating a healthy labor market that continues to support the economy.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 20,000 to 201,000 in the week ending Sept. 16, returning to within striking distance of the lowest level in more than five decades, according to Labor Department data out Thursday. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Continuing claims, which are a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, declined to 1.66 million in the week through Sept. 9. That was also the lowest level since the start of the year.

I think that the few million who have left the labor force from long Covid or pandemic related mortality probably has a lot to do with this.

As to what the Fed will do, with a nominally strong job market but falling inflation?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


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