It's Thursday

So, we have the initial unemployment claims from last week, with the initial claims numbers filling slightly, the 4 week moving average rose slightly, while the continuing claims fell slightly.

The Fed is trying really hard to put people out of work, but it does not appear to be working:

U.S. applications for unemployment benefits edged lower last week, reflecting a persistently tight labor market.

Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, decreased by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 190,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. Weekly claims have remained below the 2019 prepandemic average of about 220,000 since the start of the year.

The four-week moving average of weekly claims, which smooths out volatility, rose slightly to 193,000.

………

Thursday’s report showed continuing claims, a proxy for the total number of ongoing unemployment benefits payments, decreased by 5,000 to 1.655 million in the week ended Feb. 18. Continuing claims are reported with a one-week lag.

The level of continuing claims is somewhat elevated from a low point of about 1.3 million last spring. Modestly elevated continuing claims could be a sign some beneficiaries are taking longer to find new jobs.

………

Separately Thursday, the Labor Department revised down its estimate of worker productivity. The department said labor productivity increased a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.7% in the fourth quarter, compared with a previously estimated 3% pace. That reflects a downward revision to economic output and an upward revision to the number of hours worked.

I still expect to see a recession later this year, because while the Federal Reserve may not be able to lower inflation, it can create a recession.