It's Jobs Numbers Day

And initial unemployment claims fell again.

There is still a labor shortage, because something like ½ million people left the job market by dying of Covid, and another few million are out of the job market because of Covid related disabilities.

There are plenty signs of a cooling economy, but layoffs is not one of them right now:

U.S. applications for unemployment benefits declined slightly last week to their lowest level since April 2022, showing the labor market broadly remains tight as several companies announce job cuts.

Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, fell by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 183,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week moving average of weekly claims, which smooths out volatility, fell to 191,750. In 2019, when the labor market was also tight, claims averaged about 220,000 a week.

Claims have remained historically low in recent months as some large companies made layoff announcements, mostly in sectors such as real estate, technology, and finance. Though layoffs are starting to spread beyond those sectors, which had bulked up their staffs earlier in the pandemic.

………

A separate Labor Department report showed worker productivity rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3% in the fourth quarter from the prior period, the highest rate in a year. That reflected that economic output rose at a faster rate than hours worked. Some companies have cut back workers’ hours as demand shows signs of slowing in response to the Federal Reserve’s campaign to combat inflation.

………

The claims report showed continuing claims, which reflect the number of people seeking ongoing unemployment benefits, ticked down by 11,000 to 1.66 million in the week ended Jan. 21, the Labor Department said. Continuing claims are up from lows touched last spring, suggesting it is taking longer for some to find a new job. 

I think that in about 6 months, we will have the economic very serious people declaring that the recession some time around right now, but I am a cynic about such things.