Unemployment Numbers Today

Initial

Continuing

Initial unemployement claims edged slightly higher last week, from 214,000 to 225,000, with the 4-week moving average basically flat, and continuing claims rose by 41 thousand to 1.7 million.

I think that the continuing claims are more important than the initial claims.

While the number of people losing jobs is relatively low, those people are remaining out of the job market for much longer.

I do not think that wage pressures are driving inflation, so I think that the Fed should take its foot off the brake.

I do think that we are on the way to a recession, and possibly already in one.

Typically when recessions are declared, they are dated to before the statement.

Then again, what do I know, I'm an engineer, not an economist, dammit!*

^*I love it when I get to go all Dr. McCoy!