It's Jobless Thursday

Initial unemployment claims fell to 215,000, so the numbers are still falling.

I think that it's dead nuts certain that the Fed will be raising rates at their next meeting:

New applications for unemployment benefits edged lower and remained near historically low levels as the labor market stays tight following a decline in Covid-19 cases.

Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, fell by 18,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 215,000 for the week ended Feb. 26, down from the revised 233,000 the week before, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average, which smooths out volatility, fell to 230,500.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the total number of people on unemployment rolls through regular state programs, ticked up by 2,000 to 1,476,000 for the week ended Feb. 19. The four-week moving average of continuing claims that week fell to 1,539,500, the lowest since April 1970. Continuing claims are reported with a one-week lag.

I still think that the seasonal adjustments have been screwed up by the pandemic, the numbers do not match my gut.