06 January 2022

It's Jobless Thursday

And initial unemployment claims remain around low, 207,000, up 7,000 from the past week:

The labor market remains historically tight, with the number of unemployment-benefits filings holding last week around the lowest levels in five decades as firms struggled to remain fully staffed amid a resurgent pandemic.

Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, edged up by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week that ended Jan. 1, but remain near the lowest levels since 1969.

The fast rise in cases tied to the Omicron variant of Covid-19 could slow the labor market’s recovery from the worst of the pandemic in the coming weeks, but the most recent data indicates employers are reluctant to lay off workers at a time when few job seekers are available and the rate of quitting is at a record high.

………

Jobless-claims data can be volatile around the turn of the year and is adjusted to compensate for seasonal fluctuations, such as the end of temporary holiday jobs.

The 4-week moving average is up by a little over 4,000. and the North East, which has been hard hit by the Omicron variant, and filings up went up there.

The other fly in the ointment for jobs is that the Federal Reserve is looking to resume its war on full employment sooner than expected, at least that's what the recent release of the minutes of their FOMC December meeting, where they are now looking to raise rates in March.

The next few months should be interesting.

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