The Overs Win

The consensus was that the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) would increase by 450,000 last month.  It was 531,000.

This is unambiguously good news:

The U.S. labor market sprang back to life in October after a summer slowdown, with employers briskly adding jobs and nearly 200,000 women joining the labor force.

The economy churned out 531,000 new jobs last month, the biggest gain in three months, the Labor Department said Friday. Restaurants, consulting firms and factories all boosted hiring, suggesting broad strength across the economy. Nationwide job growth was also stronger in August and September than previously estimated, with new data boosting employment over that period by 235,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in October from 4.8% a month earlier, and is down by more than half a percentage point in just two months.

………

The U.S. still has four million fewer jobs than in February 2020, the month before the pandemic shut down much of the economy, and the unemployment rate remains higher than the pre-pandemic level of 3.5%. But Friday’s report showed the economy rebounding from the summer wave of the Delta variant, a highly contagious strain of Covid-19. Employers say they are eager to hire and are raising wages as they compete over a depleted pool of workers.

That shortage may be easing. About 180,000 female workers aged 16 and older joined the labor force in October, as Covid-19 cases declined and schools reopened. Economists say women have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic because many work in fields that involve human interaction, such as teaching. While the gain in female workers last month was modest, it boosted hopes that more workers on the sidelines would rejoin the search as virus cases continue to fall, offices and childcare facilities reopen and more children become vaccinated.

This is unambiguously good news.

Spitballing at the rate of the required growth in the NFP to keep up with workforce growth, about 150,000, and the current rate of increase over the past year, we should be back to the before times level of employment in late 2022.