23 October 2021

This Is Worse than a Crime, It Is a Mistake

In negotiations with Iran over the US reentering the JCPOA (nuclear deal), Biden has refused to promise that he will rescind Trump's sanctions against the country, even just as it applies to his own time in office.

Iran's primary issue with the US taking up the deal again is that they believe that the US cannot be trusted to keep its promises.  This does not disabuse them of this concern:

Iran’s delay in rejoining talks in Vienna to revive the landmark 2015 nuclear agreement has fueled speculation that the new Ebrahim Raisi government has lost interest in the accord. Its deepened mistrust, optimism about its China option, and confidence that it can weather American sanctions have shaped this conclusion, leaving Washington with no choice but to publicly threaten its own shift to more coercion under an undefined Plan B, the narrative goes.

But new information obtained by Responsible Statecraft reveals that that impasse is not because of an Iranian sense of immunity to pressure, but largely because President Joe Biden refused to commit to keeping sanctions lifted on Iran for the rest of his term, even if Iran rejoins and complies with the nuclear deal.

A crucial turning point in the negotiations occurred earlier in May of this year. The Iranians had insisted on legally binding commitments that the United States would respect its signature and not re-quit the JCPOA, were it to be revived. Though the U.S. team found the Iranian demand understandable, it insisted it could not bind the hands of the next administration, nor guarantee that a future administration hostile to the JCPOA wouldn’t again abandon it.

But according to both Western and Iranian diplomats involved in the negotiations, the Iranians then lowered their demand and requested a commitment that Biden would simply commit to staying within the deal for the rest of his own term, granted that Iran also would remain in compliance. According to these sources, the U.S. negotiation team took the matter back to Washington but to the surprise of Tehran and others, the White House was not ready to make such a commitment, citing legal obstacles. Instead, it offered changes to the negotiating text that fell short of a legal commitment.

Even excluding the sordid history over US treaties with Indian tribes, the US record on following the dictates of treaties that it has negotiated is remarkably poor.

Refusing to address this merely makes the problem worse, and it makes it more likely that Iran will restart its nuclear efforts.

1 comments :

Cthulhu said...

Silly Iranians. Biden only gives in to Republicans.

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