It's Jobless Thursday

Initial jobless claims fell slightly to 385,000 last week, remaining in the not great, but not apocalyptic level:

U.S. jobless claims fell slightly to 385,000 last week, as worker filings for new unemployment benefits settled this summer at a level that is nearly double the pre-pandemic average.

The decrease in filings reported by the Labor Department on Thursday comes as the economic recovery faces risks from the Covid-19 surge driven by the Delta variant, supply-chain constraints and a shortage of available workers. The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility in the weekly figures slightly decreased to 394,000.

So far, business and government responses to the Delta variant aren’t triggering an increase in U.S. layoffs, according to the Labor Department department report. The U.S. economy has experienced robust growth this year with the availability of vaccines, business reopenings, pent-up consumer demand and government aid, though economists say Delta poses a risk to growth should it cause widespread disruptions.

Continuing claims for regular and temporary pandemic-related federal programs, which provide an approximation of the number of people receiving benefits, dropped by 181,000 to 13 million in the week ended July 17, the most recent figures for that reading. The federal programs are set to expire in early September.

Jobless claims have hovered between 368,000 and 424,000 since late May, elevated above pre-pandemic levels but significantly lower than early in the pandemic. The 2019 weekly average, ahead of the pandemic, was 218,000. 

Is it is a blip, or the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end?

I have no clue.