I Said That This Would Happen, and I Am the Second Worst Prognosticator in History*

Once again, initial unemployment claims are rising under the dual whammys of a Covid explosion and the expiration of stimulus measures:

The number of applications for unemployment benefits rose sharply last week, indicating continued challenges for the U.S. economic recovery as coronavirus infections increased around the country.

Initial claims for jobless benefits, a proxy for layoffs, rose to a seasonally adjusted 742,000 last week, up from the 711,000 filed a week earlier. That level is more than three times higher than the roughly 210,000 typically filed each week in the first two months of 2020, though it is down sharply from a peak of nearly seven million in late March.

At present levels, initial jobless claims are still higher than they were in any other recession on record.

This is going to get worse before it gets better.

^*The worst prognosticator in history was my dad, Ron Saroff ז״ל, who in 1968 famously said, "Those bastards nominated Richard Nixon, there is no way that they can win!"