Economics Update

The Fed's Beige Book is out, and it is the same old, same old, a slow recovery that will take years before we are back to what should be normal:

The Federal Reserve said the labor market improved throughout the country early this year, driven by rising retail sales and “solid growth” in manufacturing.

“Labor market conditions continued to strengthen modestly, with all Districts reporting some degree of improvement,” the Fed said today in its Beige Book report, an anecdotal account of the economy released two weeks before meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. Its last survey, released Jan. 12, said the job market was “firming somewhat.”

Overall, the economy “continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace,” the central bank said in Washington. Eleven of the Fed’s 12 regional banks, including San Francisco and Philadelphia, described their regions as expanding, improving or experiencing moderate growth. Only Chicago reported growth “at a pace not quite as strong” as before.

This translates to, "Well, stocks are up, but this is not really a recovery."

I am uncertain just how much this fragile and slow recovery might be harmed by the recent spike in oil prices.

We also have conflicting job news, with Challenger, Gray, and Christmas saying that large planned layoffs are up, largely on the loss of jobs at state and local government level, but ADP is forecasting fairly strong private sector job growth.