10 December 2010

Consumer Sentiment and Exports Surge

Both good pieces of news:
A rise in U.S. consumer confidence to its highest in six months and a much bigger-than-expected contraction in the country's trade deficit pointed to a firmer economic recovery on Friday.

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Consumer sentiment in December rose to its highest level since June and was at its third-highest since the start of 2008, according to a Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey. Government data showed U.S. exports in October rose a robust 3.2 percent while imports declined slightly.

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The survey's preliminary December reading for consumer sentiment came in at 74.2, up from 71.6 in November. That was above the median forecast of 72.5 among economists polled by Reuters.
This is unalloyed good news.

It's particularly good news because we are in the Christmas shopping season that accounts for a disproportionate amount of consumer spending.

My guess is that the the exports are helped by the general trend down with the dollar over the past month. (see graph pr0n)

In an odd way, if Obama's disastrously bad tax capitulation compromise may actually help our economy if it convinces the currency markets to go short on the dollar.

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