Economics Update

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The paradox of thrift continues

It's jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims fell out of the 450K-485K sweet spot that they have been bouncing around in for most of the year. Initial claims fell by 11,000 to 445,000, better than forecast, with the 4-week moving average falling by 3,000 to 455,750, with continuing claims falling by 48,000 to 4.46 million, and emergency claims rising by 257K to 5.14 million.

So fewer people are losing work, but hiring has not picked, so overall unemployment has increased (257K - 48K - 11K = 198K more people collecting unemployment).

We also had good news on the retail front, with better than expected same store retail sales in September, though I am unclear how consumers are financing this, since wages are stagnant, and consumer credit fell in August. (See graph pr0n)

I guess that it could be that people took out their credit cards more in September, and that the conflicting figures are simply the result of month to month changes.

In Europe, both the Bank of England and the ECB held rates steady, and the BoE says that it will continue quantitative easing (printing money).

ECB bank president Jean-Claude Trichet went further full inflation idiot in statement to the press, tut-tutting other central banks easing moves, andstating that the ECB will be, "gradually phase out its non-standard liquidity measures."

Yes, we are seeing more pronouncements from the pain caucus about austerity, and the most vocal of these folks, Tory PM David Cameron, has apparently succeeded in pushing UK house prices down by 3.6% in the month of September.

Note that I am not talking about a -3.6% annual rate, I am talking about a £6,000 drop in home prices in just that month. (!)
UK home prices -3.6% in a month (!)