Economics Update

There is a lot of news today, mostly in currency and international finance, but the lede, at least for a US focused post, which this is, is the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, well above forecast.

In international finance news, we are seeing central banks all over the world beginning to open the spigots again as they see the recovery sputtering.

We have the Bank of Japan engaging in another round of quantitative easing (printing money) by setting up a ¥5 trillion ($60 billion) fund to buy government and private bonds in order to keep interest rates at 0%, and Australia, one of the first countries whose central banks increased rates, has kept rates at 4.5%, surprising the experts who were expecting another rate hike.

Interestingly enough, currency has gone in the opposite direction expects from these actions, with the Australian Dollar approaching a 2-year high, and the US dollar fell.

Generally, interest rate surprises on the low side for other countries would drive the dollar up, but it appears that there is an expectation that the Fed will go heavily back into QE like the BoJ.

There is another potential blip on the horizon, as crude oil appears to be on an upswing again.