Economics Data Points for Last Week

So, GDP growth has fallen sharply, down to a 2.4% annual rate in the 2^nd quarter, as compared to the anemic-for-a-meaningful-recovery 3.7% in the 1^st quarter, which appears to indicate that the recovery is running out of steam.

What's more, the base number is overly rosy to begin with, since it is driven by inventory restocking from industries that had drawn down to the bone, home builders rushing to beat the tax credit deadline, and a significant increase in government spending.

Consumer spending rose by only a 1.6% annual rate.

What's more, initial unemployment claims remained above 450,000, at least 50K above a tepid recovery in employment.


I'm beginning to agree with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, who says that employment has become a leading indicator, since it drives consumer spending.