Economics Update (Friday Morning Edition)

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Home sales up, but prices are down


And inventory is rising again

Yes, I know, I haven't been posting this regularly.

Yesterday's miss was due to thunderstorms.

In any case, yesterday was jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims fell slightly, by 16,000 to 460,000, which was worse than expected, with the 4 week moving average rising slightly, and continuing claims fell, though, as I frequently note, people who move from continuing claims to emergency claims fall out of that number.

We also now know that mass layoffs rose in April.

additionally, we are seeing more of that whole "paradox of thrift" thing, with personal income rising, but spending remaining flat, which implies that an increase in consumers buying crap that they really don't need won't be our economic salvation.

Also note that the US GDP in the 1^st quarter was revised downward, to an annual growth rate of 3% from 3.2%.

I think that he Obama's already anemic stimulus package is running out of steam.

In real estate, the flight from the Euro has pushed the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to a record low, which, along with the recently expired home buyer tax credit, drove existing home sales higher, though inventories are increasing as well, and prices are falling once again, which implies that a resurgence in the housing bubble won't be our economic salvation..

In terms of more general metrics, the consumer confidence index rose slightly, as did the Chicago Fed Activity Index, and the Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index.

I just wish that the PTB were as concerned about 9.9% unemployment as they are about a twitch in the DJIA that ran for about an hour.