Economics Update

Well, today is jobless Thursday, and the the new unemployment numbers disappointed big time, with initial claims rising to 460,000, as opposed to falling slightly to 435,000, with the 4-week moving average rising 2,250 to 450,250.

On the bright side, continuing claims fell by 131K to 4.55 M, though one wonders how much of that was because of Tom Coburn's petulant filibuster against extended unemployment benefits, which likely has depressed the number, which (full disclosure) has effected me directly. (Will no one rid me of ……… Oh, never mind.)

Meanwhile in consumer spending, February consumer borrowing fell at a -5.6% annual rate, wiping out, and then some, the growth in consumer borrowing in January that had economists crowing, though the Institute for Supply Management's service sector index grew faster than it has since July 2004 in March.

On the brighter side, delinquencies in consumer loans fell in the 4^th quarter of 2009.

In the world of national finance and central banks, we have a few developments with the 3-year, 10 year, and 30 year treasury notes falling and their yields rising, which implies that investors expect interest rates to increase, at least a bit.

Meanwhile, in central bank land, the Bank of England has left its benchmark interest rate and its quantitative easing unchanged, and the Bank of Korea also left rates unchanged.

In real estate, it's been a pretty busy few days with the 30 year fixed rate mortgage hitting an 8 month high, which, unsurprisingly has depressed mortgage applications.

In residential real estate, foreclosures are still rising, and distressed home sales hit a new high of 29% in January, though delinquencies on sub-prime mortgages fell for the first time since 2006.

I'm thinking that the sub-prime delinquency rate fell because we have finally run out of people who have those mortgages who haven't yet been forced out of their homes.

In commercial real estate, mall vacancies have hit an at least 10 year high, there are no records prior to this, and office vacancies hit 17.4%, the highest since 1994.

Meanwhile, in energy and currency, the bad job numbers drove crude prices down, and new concerns about Greece have driven the dollar higher.