Economics Update

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Employment-to-Population Ratio: Men (25-54 Years)


Labour Force Participation Rate: Men (25-54 Years)

And Barry Ritholtz scares the hell out of us

Well, today is Jobless Thursday, and new unemployment claims fell by 29,000 to 469,000, which is better, but not good.

The numbers needs to be below 400K before we see anything near real job growth.

The 4 week moving average fell by 3,500 to 470,750, though that number is still bigger than it was at the start of the year.

Continuing claims fell significantly, to 4,500,000, and next week, I will be a no longer be a part of that number (I file for the prior 2 weeks on Sunday).

Still, the news is an improvement, as is the latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve, which shows signs of employment.

In any case, the ADP report on private sector jobs shows a loss of 20,000 jobs, which is the best month from them since January 2008.

So, the picture is not good, but appears to be improving, but fragile.

But if you want to be scared, just look at Barry Ritholtz's analysis of historical employment for adult males, see the graph pr0n.

On a more personal level, personal bankruptcies rose in February.

We are seeing continued growth in manufacturing, at least according to the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index, which fell to 56.5 from 58.4, but since any reading above 50 means expansion, it's still positive.

The services sector is also showing encouraging growth.

Still, real estate is a mess, with pending home sales index falling 7.6%, though part of this might be the snowpocalypse.

Still, interest rates are not a problem with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate averaging 4.97 %, which is the first time in a while that it has been below 5%.

Finally, the Bank of England left its benchmark rates unchanged, as well as holding off on more quantitative easing. (Printing money)