Economics Update

The lede today is that consumer confidence fell much more than expected, down to 46.0, when the consensus forecast was 55.0, a 10 month low.

Additionally, home prices fell in the 4^th quarter, though the housing optimists are noting that the year over year drop is "only" 2½%.

When one considers the fact that the 4^th quarter was juiced by tax credits, it's worse than it looks.

Japan, on the other hand, Japan’s exports grew sharply in the 4^th quarter, with a 40.9% year over year, the biggest jump since 1980, largely on increases in exports to China.

Still the dismal consumer confidence numbers put the market in a mind to doubt that there will soon be a robust recovery, which drove oil prices down, and led to a flight to safety which pushed the Yen and the dollar up.