Economics Update

Chicago Fed Index

OK, the good news is that the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's national activity index was positiver, so we are back to something resembling treading water, and US commercial real estate prices rose 4.1% in December.

Yes, that is a month to month number, and a pretty big jump at that, though it's worth noting that, "prices are still down 29.2 percent year over year and 40 percent from the peak."

Additionally, short sales of have jumped again in January:

According to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, short sales accounted for a substantial 15.9 percent of home purchase transactions in January. This was well above the share of other distressed property activity – with damaged REO accounting for 13.4 percent of activity and move-in ready REO making up 13.8 percent.

The January figures represent a steady increase in short sale popularity. As recently as November of 2009, short sales accounted for 12.4 percent of the home purchase market, according to the Campbell report, behind move-in ready REO at 12.6 percent and nearly even with damaged REO transactions at 12.3 percent.

I would note that when you add short sales, damaged REO (basically foreclosures), and undamaged REO together, means that at least 43.1% of all sales.

In energy, oil continues to climb, approaching $80/bbl, and in currency, and the dollar was mixed.