Economics Update

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Unemployment, H/t Calculated Risk

Today is Jobless Thursday, and new jobless claims fell to 503,000, down from 514,000 (revised from 512K_) the lowest since January, with the 4 week moving average falling to 519,750 from last week's 524,250, and continuing claims fell to 5.63 million.

This is good news, but we need to be down to about 400K a week to be in jobless recovery, as opposed to "job-loss recovery", mode, (see graph pr0n, right) so there is still a way to go.

I would note that the metrics that involve moving physical objects, like port and truck traffic, and this week's report on rail traffic from the AAR are still week. with traffic in October down 15.3% from a year ago, and down 0.3% from September.

It looks like bad news for the monoliner bond insurers is heating up, with French bond insurer CIFG is on a path to an insolvency filing.

In real estate, mortgage applications hit a 9-year low, despite the fact that the 30-year fixed mortgage fell again.

Additionally, we have dueling headlines, with CNBC saying, "Foreclosures Fall Again," (true, though the call the improvement "fleeting") but Bloomberg saying that, "U.S. Foreclosure Filings Surpass 300,000 for 8^th Straight Month." (also true.

Your call as to hed is the right one.

Meanwhile, there was an auction for 30 year Treasuries, and prices fell, because....Hell, I don't know why they fell....Maybe inflation concerns, since the 3 and 10-year auctions were fairly well received.

Then we have our last bit, energy and currency, and oil fell, largely on an unexpectedly high inventory numbers, and the dollar rose, as investors looked for a safe haven.