Economics Update (Yesterday Too)

Click for full size

---

H/t Calculated Risk


Empire State Manufacturing Index


H/t Calculated Risk


The Power of Computers Over Inventory


H/t Calculated Risk

Sorry about missing yesterday, life intervened.

Well, retail sales rose in October, (1^st pic)up 1.4% from September's anemic post "cash for clunkers" numbers.

September was down 2.3%, so you can do the math.

We also had the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Index falling in November, though it is still above zero, indicating continued growth. (2^nd pic)

This is consistent with the small rise in industry capacity utilization. (3^rd Pic)

Additionally, we have business inventories falling September, (4^th Pic) and it looks like inventory restocking won't be the thing that makes this a v-shaped recovery.

One interesting note on this graph: You can see a generally downward trend in the ratio of inventory to sales, and it is likely a result of the increasing computerization of retail.

Once you have a better picture of what you need, and when, you need to keep less as a backup.

In real estate, today's news was grim, with delinquencies on commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) rising 28 basis points (0.28%) in October, to 3.86%, or about 1 in 30.

In home mortgages, delinquencies hit a new record, with 6.25%, or about 1 in 16 mortgages being 60 days or further delinquent, which is a very scary number.

We also have the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index flat in November, at 17, which is a pretty awful number. (5^th Pic)

Finally, in currency and energy, the dollar rose on comments by Ben Bernanke which imply support of a strong dollar policy by the fed, and oil rose, largely on the expectation of more demand to support retail activity during the holiday season.