Economics Update (a Day Late)

ABI Graph Pr0n H/t Calculated Risk

The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6% in August, the 5^th straight month, which implies very strongly that the recession ended in July or August.

I don't really see this as a "recovery for the rest of us." Even the most optimistic forecasters see a slow recovery in unemployment, and real-estate, which took us down in the first place, looks like it will do so again, this time on the commercial (CRE) side too.

We are seeing mortgage delinquencies hitting 7.58%, up from 7.32% in July and a new record, and AIA's Architectural Billings Index fell in August, which indicates that future activity is trending down in 9-12 months.

Additionally, the YoY price of CRE fell 27%, and rents are down too, everywhere.

Rents are falling at near rates not seen in nearly a ¼ cedntury on some of the most prestigious streets, 5^th and Madison Avenues in New York, the Champs-Elysees in Paris, London's New Bond Street, and Causeway Bay in Hong Kong,

This is a real problem because the mortgages on these properties are typically 5 years, and if the owner is under water at the end of their loan, they default, because they cannot rollover into a new loan.

Unlike a home loan, the owner cannot just sit tight.

It appears that the currency and the energy markets are concerned about this too, with Oil falling on demand concerns, and the dollar rising as investors look to a safe haven.