Economics Update

Thursday is new jobless claims day, and new jobless claims fell by 52K, to 565K,, bringing the number down below 600K for the first time since late January of this year. (Full disclosure here, one of those 565,000 people was me, if anyone knows of mechanical engineering openings in the greater Baltimore, MD area, it would be greatly appreciated.)

The other shoe dropping is that continuing claims hit an all time high, rising by 159 to 6.88 million.

Also note that these numbers are the seasonally adjusted numbers, and actual claims increased by 17K to 577.5K, and the seasonal adjustment includes a correction for auto factory shutdowns for model changes, which occurred early this year for GM and Chrysler, because of the bankruptcies.

Ain't statistics grand?

A slightly more realistic metric than the massaged jobs claim data is the fact that retail sales missed expectations in June.

The fact that retailers were selling less than expected led to wholesalers drawing their inventories to the lowest levels since August 2007.

The big news in central bank land is that the Bank of England neither cut its rates nor increased its bond purchases, which had the effect of driving treasuries down, and their yields up.

In any case, it appears that the bogus job numbers (see above) have halted the slide in crude oil prices, with prices settling at $60.41/bbl.

The Bank of England's move not to cut rates or buy bonds (print money) any faster had the effect of weakening both the dollar and the Yen.