Economics Update

Case-Shiller data vs. the Stress Test Assumptions
H/T Calculated Risk


Default rates on mortgages, Also
H/T Calculated Risk

Uh-oh, consumer confidence fell in June, largely based on job concerns.

The reporter interviews an analyst who is surprised about this, because of , "the fact that the S&P 500 is close to 40 percent off its March lows."

The fact is that the general public is better at recognizing a dead cat bounce than this analyst, because they are concerned about jobs, which are still being lost.

Meanwhile in the world of real estate, or perhaps we should call it unreal estate, the
Case-Shiller index posted an 18.1% year over year drop, and delinquencies on prime mortgages going off the charts.

We also got GDP numbers for the 1^st quarter from the UK, and we have their economy falling off a cliff, down 2.4% for the quarter, and 4.9% year over year.

Maybe the good news is that there U.K. house prices rose in June, following May's increase, up 0.9%, though it's still down 9.3% year over year.

Until I see year over year numbers below 2%, I don't see any green shoots, just the 2^nd derivative of price going positive.

In any case, the crappy consumer confidence report drove oil down and the dollar up, as there are concerns about reduced demand for oil, and a flight to safety in dollars.