Economics Update

Well, we have good news to start, with the Institute for Supply Manufacturing Index rising to 41, beating expectations, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising to 65.1.

I'm not sure if this is a turn around or just a pause, since 41 is still contraction (50 being neutral for the ISM Manufacturing Index), and 65.1 for consumer confidence is well below the baseline of 100 which was set in December 1964.

Additionally, U.S. March factory orders fell 0.9%, and Japanese prices are showing deflation again, both of which mitigate against a prompt recovery.

Still, optimism on the economy drove oil to above $53/bbl.

As to the dollar, it was up vs. the Yen, and down vs. the Euro, I think largely on the bad news from Japan and the "good" news on orders and consumer confidence.