Economics Update

Well, the job loss report from payroll processor ADP is out, and according to them, there were 742,00 job losses in March, well above the 655K forecast.

Part of this is driven by continued declines in construction spending, as Calculated Risk notes and graphs (see graph pr0n).

As he notes, non-residential construction spending is following residential spending off a cliff.

There was also an increase in the NAR's pending home sales index, though it remains firmly in the horrible range, at 82.1, up from 80.4, with 100 being the average level of pending home sales in 2001.

Still, mortgage applications are up again, though this is largely still refi activity.

The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Index mirrors the pending home sales index, in that it is up, to 36.3 from 35.8, but still in a firmly contracting posture, as 50 is neutral.


On the other side of the Pacific, we are seeing Japanese business confidence numbers fall to record lows.

The news in the auto industry, whether foreign or domestic is grim, with sales numbers for GM, Toyota, Ford, Chrysler, Honda, and Nissan all falling significantly.

We also see the Fed printing money to buy $6 billion in Treasuries, so as to keep the interest rates down.

In currency, the dollar is up on risk aversion again. Investors are concerned about the G-20 meeting, though I'm not sure if the concern is about nothing being done, or something being done....Maybe it's a bit of both.

In energy, oil fell on strong inventory reports.