Economics Update

December 2008 Business Outlook Survey - Philadelphia Fed.
Calculated Risk gives us the following graph pr0n on the relation beteween the Philly Fed index and recessions

30-year mortgage lowest in 37 years of Freddie Mac survey - MarketWatch

Also note the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, which, as Bondad Notes, has fallen off a cliff over the past two months.

If you go to the ISM's report, you will see that the pretty much everything is down, and down significantly:

The two industries reporting growth in November — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Paper Products. The industries reporting contraction in November are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Wood Products.

With industrial production cratering, it is no surprise that first time job claims are still at a high level, though they have retreated from last week's catestrophic numbers, and the 4 week rolling average is up, though continuing claims are down, though I can't tell if that's from claim exhaustion, people giving up, or people going back to work, though my money would be on one, or both, of the first two.

Over on the other side of the pond, corporate sentiment is falling in Germany, and the ECB is taking rate cut like steps, even if they are not technically rate cuts, to boost the economy.

In the intersection of real estate and banking, the rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage hit the lowest number ever recorded, and records go back 37 years, though Calculated Risk (again) notes what the rate is for Jumbo loans, which not handled by Fannie and Freddie, who now have an explicit guarantee from the government, the numbers are very different:

As an example Wells Fargo is offering a 30 year fixed at 4.75% (up to $417K), but their rates are 7.375% for loans above that limit.

That's a 7.375% is 55% more than 4.75%. That's a lot of flight to safety.

In currency, the dollar is up a bit, which is not surprising. It's enough time for the shock from the Fed's rate cut to have worn off.

I still think that hte trend for the dollar is weaker.


In oil, even though OPEC announced large production cuts, fell below $36/bbl.

It could be that oil traders do not believe that the cuts will be followed, or that they think that the economy is so bad that it does not matter, or that there are still people who need cash and are selling oil contracts to get it.

My vote would be for all three.