Economics Update

While the Federal Reserve is afraid to say the word, it appears from their latest report that we are seeing stagflation.

Jobless benefit claims just spiked above 400,000, up 34,000 from last week to 406,000, the highest reading since March.

Again, let me note that the weekly numbers have a lot of noise, but this news still sucks.

What's more we have increasing evidence that the downturn is not "decoupled", but is effecting other economies, with consumer and corporate confidence in Europe coming in well below expectations.

Not surprisingly, the bad news out of Europe, which points to interest rate moderation there, has bolstered the dollar.

Some real estate numbers came out today, and they are not good.

home sales fell 2.6% from may, and are now at an annual rate of 4.93 million/year, the lowest rate since 1998.

If you are wondering what might happen when mortgage rates rise, you should break out the popcorn, because it looks like that show might be starting soon. Rates went up 0.37% last week to 6.63% for a 30 year fixed mortgage.

Because of all this, I am not surprised thatthe number of vacant homes has remained at more than 2.2 million.

Energy was flippity floppity today, with oil up by about a dollar, and retail gasoline prices down again.