22 April 2008

Economics Update

It's official, we're in a recession, because Bush is denying that we are in a recession - Apr. 22, 2008.

For more direct evidence of a recession, we have American drivers cutting back on driving and gasoline usage. When Americans stop driving, it means that the recession is here...big time.



In energy, oil broke $119/bbl, $110/bbl now appears to be the new $100/bbl

Across the border, Canadian Central Bank cut rates by 50 basis points, but even so, the Canadian dollar is still above parity with the US dollar, but they are definitely seeing the fallout from the US downturn.

In other currency matters, the dollar weakened to above $1.60:€1.00, though it's now about $1.5992.

At the beginning of the year, it was $1.48 or so.

In things related to banking and real estate, we have to start with the elephant in the room, that GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are looking increasingly at risk, and a potential bailout would run to over $1 trillion, which might threaten the US government's AAA rating.

Generally, bank profits are tanking, so it should come as no surprise that banks are retrenching.

Notably, Bank of America will be ending subprime operations, and tightening generally on mortgage standards, which makes it hard to understand why it's buying Countrywide.

Citi needs more capital, so it's offerring $6.2 billion in hybrid bonds, at 8.4%, with an A2 rating.

Hybrid bonds are....are....Ummm, a sort of hybrid between preferred stock and bonds...I'm confused, and they are described as "innovative". I'll try to get more information, but in the meantime, run away.

Finally, the Fed bailout of banks continues apace, reaching $360 billion with the sale yesterday.

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