Merrill Lynch Bear Says this Will be Ugly

A prominent bear, Merril Lynch economist David Rosenberg, is saying that will be the worst one since the 1970s.

I think that it will be worse, because we are in a debtor economy, and bills will be coming due sooner, rather than later.

In fact, I think that some of the indicators may show it to be more profound than that of the 1930s.

Here's why:

• In the 1930s, we were a net exporter of oil, now we are a net importer of oil.
• In the 1930s, the rest of the industrialized world was still suffering from the shocks of WWI, which had left the US largely unscathed.
• The US was running a trade surplus.
• The Federal government was running a budget surplus.
• The amount of leverage and risk are far higher now than in 1930.
• The US industrial base has been decimated over the past 35 years.
• Consumer savings is non-existent.
• We have crushing defense expenditures.
• The dollar is overvalued, meaning that we will be experiencing a foreign exchange driven inflation.

Note, however, that but I'm an engineer, not an economist, dammit^*!

^*I love it when I get to go all Doctor McCoy!!!