07 February 2008

Economics Update

The Fed Bank of Philidelphia president is making noise about how inflation is poised fore a comeback, which bummed out stock traders.

It looks like the current economic situation is leading bankers to screw their small customers. Of course, were the economic situation reversed, it would be used by bankers to screw their small customers.

At least, there is symmetry.

Foreclosures: Las Vegas is the foreclosure capital of the US. This appears not to be from the economic downturn, it's a prosperous area, but rather from exotic mortgages.

In a blaze of recognizing the bloody obvious, the NAR is now saying that they expect home prices to decline in 2008.

If you look at regional downturns, we are looking at 5-10 years before a rebound.


The director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), which regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is warning that the GSEs are taking on too much risky debt. He is saying that, "reducing risks in the market, but concentrating mortgage risks on themselves."

I think that he is suggesting that without tighter regulation, the suggestion of allowing Fannie and Freddie to take on larger mortgages is a very bad idea.

Overseas, the Bank of England cut its benchmark 25 basis points to 5.25%, while the European Central Bank holds kept its rate steady at 4%. The UK appears to be in a real-estate driven downturn, while most of Europe (Spain excepted) did not experience the same sort of speculative real estate bubble.

On Jobs, new applicants for unemployment fell by 22K last week, but the total number of people collecting unemployment continues to rise. (the former is a far noisier number).

In retail, January sales posted their worst performance since records were kept, with same store sales rising only 0.5%, which is a significant drop when inflation is factored in.

And finally, a cartoon for your amusement:

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