We Are F%$#ed

Have you ever heard of an El Niño atmospheric river?

Well, you are about to. 

The weather is dry for the moment, but signs across the atmosphere are painting a clear picture for when the first atmospheric river will bring rain to California.

As El Niño begins to lock into the atmosphere, it will continue to set up patterns like the one we will see next week, with lower pressure just offshore and a lingering dome of high pressure across the central United States.

Patterns like this that hold in place for a week or more are exceptional at squeezing out oceanic moisture in the form of atmospheric rivers – strings of the jet stream that become saturated with relentless rain. And the first of the season for Central California is taking shape for next week.

………

The next seven or so days look quite dry. A stable atmosphere overhead will make for a wonderful week of high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s across most of the Golden State.

The trouble comes when this stability moves east. With low pressure already spinning away in the Gulf of Alaska, any stable atmosphere that moves east will pull that Gulf of Alaska low south, where it will quickly be saturated with extra moisture from El Niño and form an atmospheric river.
 A clear signal for lower pressure across the atmosphere west of California is expected late next week, setting up likely rain events for the western United States. The Sacramento Bee

It is too early to say which day these long-lasting rains could ring out over California, but the probable window is approximately Nov. 11-16, with rain likely only lasting for a day or two.

Atmospheric river rains can be substantial, especially with extra fuel to work with thanks to El Niño. Many areas could quickly see a month's worth of rain in just a few days.

We are in for a world of hurt.